Back in September 1995, freelancer Mark Nollinger wrote an extensive profile of AOL for Wired.  AOL saw itself as reaching mainstream consumers in a way that the internet alone never would.  Steve Case was confident that simple access to affordable bundled content was what consumers wanted.

Case believes that Microsoft and the Internet players are not going to be cheaper or easier to use, and therefore, are not taking the approach that's going to build a mass market. He's convinced that his opponents' strategy of "disintermediation" - unbundling systems and letting users "roll their own" packages - is going to be too much of a hassle for Mr. and Mrs. Average Online Consumer. "I don't see any evidence to suggest that this is what the 93 percent [the percentage of Americans that were unconnected in 1995] wants," Case says. "I think a subset of the 7 percent wants that. The people I talk to who don't yet use online services don't use them because they are still a little scared of them. Making it more complicated for people to connect and use the service, giving them a bewildering array of options to pick from - it's hard to imagine that's going to help."

The reporter is enthusiastic about the AOL view of the world:

[I]f history is any guide, sell AOL short at your own risk. Some services may turn out to be cheaper, others may have cooler technology. But it's hard to imagine anyone having a better insight into the hearts and minds of American consumers. The folks at AOL have risen to the top by demonstrating that the online business isn't just about technology; it's about understanding what people really want - an easy, affordable, mediated experience. As the market grows and the common denominator lowers, that should prove to be more true than ever.

Ted Leonsis had advice for everyone who wanted to sell unbundled access to the web:

To the naysayers who persist in believing that the world is full of intrepid adventurers just itching to climb the mountains of cyberspace on their own, Leonsis has a final story about human nature.

As he relates it, the cruise-ship business was once fragmented into hundreds of tiny little companies. Then a guy named Ted Arison came along and discovered that what excited people the most about cruises was the idea of sailing to exotic foreign lands. So Arison started Carnival Cruise Lines. For a few hundred dollars, Carnival gave passengers a nice berth and all the food they could eat, and sent them off on a journey with people like themselves.

And when they arrived at that exotic foreign land, what did they do? "Well, half of them would run to the Hard Rock Cafe," Leonsis says with glee. "A couple would buy a Swatch watch. And a couple would go eat some shrimp. And Carnival became a multibillion-dollar company."

Then he delivers the punch line: "We have the opportunity to become the Carnival Cruise Lines of this environment."

Ten years later, how does AOL's point of view sound?  Its subscriber base is down to about 22 million from almost 27 million in 2002.  (There may be a lot of churn in the subscriber numbers.)  But it's making money on online ads.  And it's getting rid of its walled-garden forums and moving its focus to aol.com (free webmail! Live8 streaming!), while announcing VoIP plans and streaming radio initiatives.  In a sense, AOL is reinventing itself by spiffing up online where the rest of us can see it. 

It sounds as if access to mediated content isn't (by itself, at least) driving AOL's business plans.  And that consumers are getting much better at making their own choices than the AOL of 1995 predicted they would.  Today more than 60% of Americans are online, and they want access and virus protection.  Not Carnival Cruises.